Talking Shop: Volume XVIII

 

As the nights grow cooler in Western New York, it’s hard not to notice the stars. Some evenings the sky feels empty with just a few points of light. Other nights, it seems endless, speckled with thousands. In reality, of course, there are trillions out there, far too many to process. For centuries, people have made sense of the sky by connecting the dots into recognizable patterns and pictures – constellations.

In our research process, we do much the same. Every day we’re flooded with information: data, news, trends, stories. On their own, these “stars” can feel random. But when we connect them, patterns emerge. Those patterns – constellations – help us navigate the investment universe and drive investment decisions.

Thematic Lens

A frequent question we get: What exactly does your research team do all day?

The simple answer is we spend our days searching for two things – great businesses and enduring themes. Where those two overlap, you often find opportunities for long-term wealth creation.

Unlike trying to forecast macroeconomic variables like interest rates or commodity prices, which are notoriously difficult to predict, long-term themes tend to play out over years or sometimes decades. They provide a durable lens through which we can identify where the world is heading, and which companies are best positioned to benefit.

The Five Constellations

There are many trends unfolding in the world around us at any given time. In our attempt to make sense of it all, we’ve identified five thematic constellations that are worth following. Each of these constellations is made up of countless stars, or trends, that may look isolated at first, but upon further inspection, they are related in important ways.

The Five Constellations:

  • Dis-United Nations – Rising nationalism and geopolitical conflict are redrawing supply chains, reshaping trade, and creating new fronts of defense in both cyber and traditional warfare.
  • Intelligent Systems – Sensors, chips, and software are finally converging. AI gives them an operating system, but only if the right infrastructure and applications are built to support it.
  • Resource Revolution – The developed world has transitioned from a stance of consumption to a posture of sustainability. Economic and social forces are pushing a transformative shift to resource efficiency.
  • Modern Consumer – A growing global middle class and technological advancement have evolved the consumer from one focused on necessary goods to one prioritizing convenient and personalized experiences.
  • Future of Health – Innovations in areas such as genomics, diagnostics, and surgical techniques are pushing medicine from one-size-fits-all to more personalized and precise care.

While we often emphasize our process of investing in quality, wide-moat businesses, we place equal importance on identifying themes that can propel revenue growth and margin expansion – the true building blocks of value creation.

Stargazing

Take tariffs. They might look like dry trade policy on the surface. But viewed through a thematic lens, they’re a symptom of a continuing global fracturing that has wide-ranging implications. Within the same constellation of tariffs, you would notice how the decline of global trade and the increase in modern conflicts are culminating in the need for reshoring, infrastructure investment, and the continued rise in demand for cybersecurity solutions.

Or consider the shifting wants of the modern consumer. As dual-income households have risen, we’ve seen delayed marriage, lower birth rates, and less personal bandwidth. Given these changing dynamics, consumers are seeking convenient, personalized, and meaningful experiences. Through this lens, you can see the secular nature of the growth in grocery and take-out food delivery as well as the increasing importance of travel as a leisure activity.

So, while our poor posture and persistent back pain may lead you to believe we are simply staring at spreadsheets all day, the reality is we spend much more time staring at the figurative night sky. The patterns don’t predict the future with certainty, but they give us a map. And when you have a map, you’re far less likely to get lost along the way.

Best Regards,
The Sandhill Research Team

 

Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The views expressed reflect the opinions of Sandhill Investment Management (“Sandhill”) as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Certain statements herein may be forward-looking in nature. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to differ materially. References to market themes, sectors, or examples are provided for illustration only and do not represent specific recommendations. Economic and market information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Sandhill does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Investors should consult their financial, legal, or tax advisors regarding the applicability of any investment strategy to their individual circumstances.

 

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