May 2025 Research Update
Talking Shop: Volume XVII
In Volume VIII of Talking Shop, a little over two years ago, we discussed the emergence of artificial intelligence, catalyzed by the release of ChatGPT, which quickly became a viral sensation in early 2023. Since then, the pace of innovation has only accelerated. While OpenAI has continued to introduce better versions of ChatGPT, other players have introduced models such as Claude, Gemini, Grok, LLaMA, Perplexity, among others. China-based DeepSeek caused waves with the introduction of a much lower-cost model back in January.
To stay at the leading edge of understanding this trend, we recently attended ServiceNow’s Knowledge 2025 conference – which was entirely dedicated to advancements in AI.
A New Era of Uncertainty
Talking Shop: Volume XVI
The first weeks of the Trump administration have been eventful, bringing policy shifts and economic debates. While change creates uncertainty, history shows markets adapt. Each new administration enacts changes that may seem drastic in the short term but rarely derail long-term wealth generation. The current scenario involves the threat of tariffs and the impacts of DOGE; while navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape and persistent inflation.
Presidential Election & Markets
Talking Shop: Volume XV
There has been no shortage of prognostications on how the market would perform based on the U.S. Presidential election results. As long-term investors, we did our own analysis evaluating historical economic and market data over the past 100 years to look for insights on election results and market returns.
Fixed Income Opportunities
Talking Shop: Volume XIV
For much of the last few decades, the world of bonds and other fixed income instruments has largely been a story of slow and steady asset appreciation. The 10-year treasury rate peaked in the early 1980s at around 15% before charting a path to just over 0.5% in 2020. Interest rates and bond prices have an inverse relationship—meaning this 40-year period was a long bull market for fixed income assets. After rates hit these lows in 2020, inflation raged and forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to levels not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. This action has created compelling opportunities in corporate bonds and fixed income.
Customer Conferences & Travel Trends
Talking Shop: Volume XIII
As Research Analysts, we often perform due diligence on companies in the office reading through stacks of transcripts and filings. However, we feel it is important to hit the road from time to time to meet with our portfolio companies in person. In our most recent trip, we headed out to the Midwest to mingle with the customers of one of our largest holdings: Tyler Technologies. Plus, discover more about how our Research team has taken advantage of a recent travel trend that has showed no sign of slowing down.
Super Bowl LVIII & Charlie Munger
Talking Shop: Volume XII
Over 120 million viewers tuned in to this year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas—making it the most-watched telecast in U.S. history. As the Chiefs and 49ers battled on the gridiron, a familiar company stole the spotlight off the field with two creative commercials that garnered plenty of attention. But will CoStar Group and Homes.com ultimately succeed in its quest to change the future of residential real estate platforms? Plus, discover more about how our Research team is adhering to the wise words of Charlie Munger in selectively deploying our clients’ cash in new investment opportunities.
The Magnificent 7 & GLP-1s
Talking Shop: Volume XI
Equity markets—led by the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks—have enjoyed a blistering 2023. But as the S&P 500 has become incredibly top-heavy due to the dominance of these tech giants, is there cause for concern? Plus, learn more about the emergence of GLP-1 drugs in driving significant weight loss among patients and discover whether this trend is here to stay.
U.S. Debt Ceiling Negotiations
Talking Shop: Volume X
You have likely seen media coverage of the current drama in Washington, D.C. regarding negotiations over the debt ceiling. Given the potential market implications of a deal not being made, our Sandhill Research Team thought it would be helpful to offer our view on the topic.
Panic Over Silicon Valley Bank
Talking Shop: Volume IX
You have probably seen the news that Silicon Valley Bank has been shut down by regulators after a run on the bank. We thought it may be helpful to provide some context to the situation, its impact on markets, and how our Research team is navigating the current environment.
AI's Emergence and Explosion
Talking Shop: Volume VIII
The rapid emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT has dominated headlines in recent weeks. What impact will this new innovation have on our world at large? Plus, read more to learn about the recent confusion in the U.S. equity markets—and why these nonsensical swings remind our Research team of an old “Seinfeld” episode from the late ’90s.
Geopolitical Strife & Value Stocks
Talking Shop: Volume VII
As the World Cup is underway in Qatar, current geopolitical strife remains prevalent around the world. How do current global crises compare to those in previous years—and what impact does this heightened volatility have on U.S. equity markets? Plus, read more to learn why value stocks have steadily outperformed growth stocks in 2022—and discover whether our Research team expects this trend to continue.
An Aggressive Federal Reserve
Talking Shop: Volume VI
The Federal Reserve lifted the fed funds rate by 0.75% at their September meeting. This was the third straight 75 bps increase. This brings the benchmark rate to 3.0%-3.25%, a level not seen since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.
Volatility Equals Opportunity
Talking Shop: Volume V
Downward volatility in the capital markets can be scary. However, beyond the fear, volatility creates opportunity. When markets are in distress, investors are given the chance to own great assets at great prices. Like any other market, the best time to go shopping is when there is a sale. But being greedy when others are fearful is much easier said than done.
Our team has been hard at work strategically positioning our portfolio during this downward volatility. From your perspective, our portfolio transactions might not seem much different than normal, so we wanted to take a moment to specifically describe the actions we have taken to shape the portfolio for the current environment.
Battling a Bear Market
Talking Shop: Volume IV
With financial markets under significant pressure, we wanted to share a special macro edition of Talking Shop. Typically, our focus is on news and updates that pertain to our portfolio companies but given recent market volatility, we thought it would be helpful to take a broader look at the markets and why we remain confident in the long-term outlook.
Increasing Inflationary Concerns
Talking Shop: Volume III
Rising inflationary pressures, legalized sports gambling in New York State, and Disney’s profitable reopening headline this latest edition of Talking Shop.
Welcome Back, Volatility
Talking Shop: Volume II
Autonomous electric vehicles? The fight against COVID-19? Heightened volatility? We discuss these various topics in our second edition of Talking Shop.
Holiday Supply Chain Struggles
Talking Shop: Volume I
Welcome to our first edition of Talking Shop. We are continuously reading, learning, and uncovering fascinating details about the world in which we live… and invest. This information plays a central role in our research process and helps to determine the investments within your portfolio.
We constantly find ourselves saying “did you hear about…?” or “in the Journal today…” and thought we could craft this into a periodic email. We promise to keep it short – not more than a 3-minute read – interesting information you’ll want to discuss over dinner or at a cocktail party and pertinent – always wrapping back into your portfolio to give you a peek under the hood.
We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we enjoy writing it.
And if you do, let us know!